Appropriateness of frequent use of emergency departments: A retrospective analysis in Rome, Italy.

Background: Frequent users (FUs) are patients who repeatedly and inappropriately visit the emergency department (ED) for low-grade symptoms that could be treated outside the hospital setting. This study aimed to investigate the phenomenon of the FU in Rome by profiling such users and analyzing ED attendance by FUs. Methods: The analysis was carried out for attendance in 2021 at 15 EDs in the Local Health Authority Roma 1 geographical area. A digital app collected data, including information on the following variables: number of attendance, demographic characteristics, emergency medical service (EMS) usage, triage code, and appropriateness of attendance. COVID-19 diagnosis was also studied to analyze any possible influence on ED attendance. Differences between FUs and non-FUs were investigated statistically by t-test and chi-square test. Univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression were performed to analyze the associated factors. Results: A total of 122,762 ED attendance and 89,036 users were registered. The FU category represented 2.9% of all users, comprising 11.9% of total ED attendance. There was a three times higher frequency of non-urgent codes in attendance of FU patients (FU: 9.7%; non-FU: 3.2%). FUs were slightly more likely to have used the EMS (13.6% vs. 11.4%) and had a lower frequency of appropriate ED attendance (23.8% vs. 27.0%). Multivariate logistic analysis confirmed a significant effect of triage code, gender, age, EMS usage, and COVID-19 diagnosis for the appropriateness of attendance. The results were statistically significant (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The FU profile describes mostly non-urgent and inappropriate attendance at the ED, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study represents an important tool for strengthening preventive policies outside the hospital setting. The Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan represents an excellent opportunity for the development of new strategies to mitigate the phenomenon of FUs.

Risk factors and effect on mortality of superinfections in a newly established COVID-19 respiratory sub-intensive care unit at University Hospital in Rome.

BACKGROUND: Little is known on the burden of co-infections and superinfections in a specific setting such as the respiratory COVID-19 sub-intensive care unit. This study aims to (i) assess the prevalence of concurrent and superinfections in a respiratory sub-intensive care unit, (ii) evaluate the risk factors for superinfections development and (iii) assess the impact of superinfections on in-hospital mortality. METHODS: Single-center retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data including COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a newly established respiratory sub-intensive care unit managed by pneumologists which has been set up from September 2020 at a large (1200 beds) University Hospital in Rome. Inclusion criteria were: (i) COVID-19 respiratory failure and/or ARDS; (ii) hospitalization in respiratory sub-intensive care unit and (iii) age > 18 years. Survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and the statistical significance of the differences between the two groups was assessed using the log-rank test. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression model were performed to tease out the independent predictors for superinfections' development and for mortality, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 201 patients were included. The majority (106, 52%) presented severe COVID-19. Co-infections were 4 (1.9%), whereas 46 patients (22%) developed superinfections, mostly primary bloodstream infections and pneumonia. In 40.6% of cases, multi-drug resistant pathogens were detected, with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CR-Ab) isolated in 47%. Overall mortality rate was 30%. Prior (30-d) infection and exposure to antibiotic therapy were independent risk factors for superinfection development whereas the development of superinfections was an independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. CR-Ab resulted independently associated with 14-d mortality. CONCLUSION: In a COVID-19 respiratory sub-intensive care unit, superinfections were common and represented an independent predictor of mortality. CR-Ab infections occurred in almost half of patients and were associated with high mortality. Infection control rules and antimicrobial stewardship are crucial in this specific setting to limit the spread of multi-drug resistant organisms.

Retrospective analysis of seroprevalence in a cohort of university students of Rome (Italy) between September 2020 and July 2021.

BACKGROUND: the reopening of Universities in a COVID-19 pandemic context represented a potential source of virus transmission among students. OBJECTIVES: to measure the SARS-CoV-2 real circulation among university students attending the University of Rome 'Niccolò Cusano' by seroprevalence analysis. DESIGN: retrospective study based on a point-of-care (POC) SARS-CoV-2 rapid qualitative serological screening performed on asymptomatic students attending the University. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: between September 2020 to July 2021 at Niccolò Cusano University, 9,588 SARS-CoV-2 lateral-flow rapid qualitative antibody assays were performed on a total of 2,423 asymptomatic students. Among them, 389 individuals with compulsory attendance were tested every 10 days for a minimum observational period of 7 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG antibodies was estimated at more levels. It was calculated: 1. the number of positive cases detected among the total number of students tested during the screening period; 2. the cumulative seroprevalence over the time, and the seroprevalence distribution over the months; 3. the duration of seropositivity after SARS-CoV-2 infection in the known previous infected students repeatedly tested. RESULTS: a total of 112 participants had a SARS-CoV-2 positive IgG and/or IgM antibodies test, 39 of them with a documented history of previous infection. In the remaining 73 cases, 24 were confirmed with an external quantitative serological analysis and identified as individuals with unknown previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure, 17 resulted false positive and 32 subjects were excluded. The total seroprevalence was 2.6% (95%CI 2.0%-3.3%) and among the 63 confirmed seropositive cases, 75% had detectable IgG antibodies, 3% had IgM antibodies, and 22% were positive for both IgM and IgG antibodies. In the 389 repeatedly-tested students, 36 students were positive to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, 14 with unknown previous infection, and 22 with known previous infection. Among these, 50% retained immune memory up to 4 months post infection and 27% of cases retained seropositivity up to 7 months. CONCLUSIONS: the data collected has been useful to measure a real epidemiological rate of the virus spread in a cohort of students in Italy as well as to obtain information on the antibodies seropositivity duration in individuals with previous infection.

Prevalence and characteristics of distress in a sample of large hospital's workers in Rome in a period between two peaks of the covid-19 pandemic.

AIM: The aim of this study has been to measure the distress of workers at a large hospital in Rome, immediately after the lockdown with relaxed national restrictions except the indication to wear masks FP2 and to maintain the interpersonal distance of at least one meter. METHOD: A web-based anonymous survey has been conducted. Of the 324 responders (23-69 years; 78.09% females), 41.05% was nurse, 31.17% medical doctor, 7.72% employee with administrative function, 3.09% psychologist, 1.54% biologist, 13.58% grouped in the "other" category. 60.49% worked in a no-covid-19 ward, 20.37% in the covid-19 ward, 13.58% in outpatient clinics, and 5.56% outside the hospital. 45.06% have been exposed to covid-19 and 7.72% tested positive for covid-19. 66.67% were satisfied with the safety measures taken by the hospital. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, as measured by IES-R, and peritraumatic distress, measured by CPDI, were frequently reported (41.05% and 43.21%, respectively). PTSD resulted independently associated with peritraumatic distress (Adjusted Odds Ratio, AOR 49.83), perception of being avoided by family and/or friends due to work performed (AOR= 4.05), low hope for the future (AOR= 2.25) and female gender (AOR= 2.90). Age and profession were considered confounding variables. RESULTS: These results showed that even in times of reduced restrictions, the prevalence of peritraumatic distress and PTSD is high, regardless of work and professional specialization, length of service, more or less direct contact with covid-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Since the biological damage resulting from a PTSD is known, it is important to activate screening programs followed by specific interventions to reduce long-term risks to mental health.

Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 circulation using saliva testing in school children in Rome, Italy.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the trend of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in saliva samples from children attending nine schools in Rome in the local surveillance unit RM3 during the period of September 2021-March 2022, in parallel with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 RNA observed in nasopharyngeal swabs (NPSs) from the population in the same catchment area that was routinely tested at our laboratory in the same period. METHODS: Saliva samples were collected using the Copan LolliSpongeTM device and analyzed by Aptima® SARS-CoV-2 Assay on the Panther® System. NPSs were tested using either Aptima® SARS-CoV-2 Assay or Alinity m SARS-CoV-2 Assay. RESULTS: The percentage of positivity in the two populations was different; of the 2222 saliva samples from students, 0.99% had positive results, whereas the percentage was higher (33.43%) in the 8994 NPSs representing the population from local surveillance unit RM3. Interestingly, the trend of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in saliva samples from students was consistent with that observed in NPSs from the population in same catchment area, although with peaks slightly anticipated. CONCLUSION: Overall, screening of saliva in the schools represents a good system to monitor SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the population, allowing early detection and quick isolation of students who are asymptomatic with positive test results and thus prevention of virus transmission.

Reduction in emergency access for acute myocardial infarction during the COVID-19 pandemic: a survey from the greater area of Rome.

BACKGROUND: On March 9, 2020, the Italian government imposed a national lockdown to tackle the COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, including stay at home recommendations. The precise impact of COVID-19 scare and lockdown on emergency access for acute myocardial infarction (MI) is still subject to debate. METHODS: Data on all patients undergoing invasive coronary angiography at 9 hospitals in the greater area of Rome, Italy, between February 19, 2020 and March 29, 2020 were retrospectively collected. Incidence of ST-elevation MI (STEMI), and non-ST-elevation MI (NSTEMI), as well as corresponding percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), was compared distinguishing two different 20-day time periods (before vs. on or after March 10, 2020). RESULTS: During the study period, 1068 patients underwent coronary angiography, 142 (13%) with STEMI and 169 (16%) with NSTEMI. The average daily number of STEMI decreased from 4.3 before the lockdown to 2.9 after the lockdown (P=0.021). Similarly, the average daily number of NSTEMI changed from 5.0 to 3.5 (P=0.028). The average daily number of primary PCI changed from 4.2 to 2.9 (P=0.030), while the average daily number of PCI for NSTEMI changed from 3.5 to 2.5 (P=0.087). For STEMI patients, the time from symptom onset to hospital arrival (onset-to-door time less than three hours) showed a significant increase after the lockdown (P=0.018), whereas door-to-balloon time did not change significantly from before to after the lockdown (P=0.609). CONCLUSIONS: The present study, originally reporting on the trends in STEMI and NSTEMI in the Rome area, highlights that significant decreases in the incidence of both acute coronary syndromes occurred between February 19, 2020 and March 29, 2020, together with increases in time from symptom onset to hospital arrival, luckily without changes in door-to-balloon time.

SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics in the virology laboratory of a University Hospital in Rome during the lockdown period.

Italy was one of the most affected nations by coronavirus disease 2019 outside China. The infections, initially limited to Northern Italy, spread to all other Italian regions. This study aims to provide a snapshot of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemiology based on a single-center laboratory experience in Rome. The study retrospectively included 6565 subjects tested for SARS-CoV-2 at the Laboratory of Virology of Sapienza University Hospital in Rome from 6 March to 4 May. A total of 9995 clinical specimens were analyzed, including nasopharyngeal swabs, bronchoalveolar lavage fluids, gargle lavages, stools, pleural fluids, and cerebrospinal fluids. Positivity to SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 8% (527/6565) of individuals, increased with age, and was higher in male patients (P < .001). The number of new confirmed cases reached a peak on 18 March and then decreased. The virus was detected in respiratory samples, in stool and in pleural fluids, while none of gargle lavage or cerebrospinal fluid samples gave a positive result. This analysis allowed to gather comprehensive information on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology in our area, highlighting positivity variations over time and in different sex and age group and the need for a continuous surveillance of the infection, mostly because the pandemic evolution remains unknown.

[Impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on total and cause-specific mortality in Rome (Italy) in 2020]. / Impatto dell'epidemia di COVID-19 sulla mortalità totale e per causa a Roma nel 2020.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on total and cause-specific mortality in people residing and dead in the Municipality of Rome (Italy) in 2020, and to describe the causes of death of subjects with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by molecular test. DESIGN: descriptive analysis of total and cause-specific mortality in 2020 in Rome and comparison with a reference period (2015-2018 for total mortality and 2018 for cause-specific mortality); descriptive analysis of cause-specific mortality in the cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 27,471 deaths registered in the Lazio mortality-cause Registry, relating to people residing and died in the municipality of Rome in 2020, 2,374 of which died from COVID-19.MAIN OUCOME MEASURES: all-cause mortality by month, gender, age group and place of death, cause-specific mortality (ICD-10 codes). RESULTS: in the municipality of Rome in 2020, an excess of mortality from all causes equal to +10% was observed, with a greater increase in the months of October-December (+27%, +56%, and +26%, respectively) in people aged 50+, with the greatest contribution from the oldest age groups (80+) who died in the nursing homes or at home. Lower mortality was observed in the age groups 0-29 years (-30%) and 40-49 years (-13%). In 2020, COVID-19 represents the fourth cause of death in Rome after malignant tumours, diseases of the circulatory system, and respiratory diseases. Excess mortality was observed from stroke and pneumonia (both in men and women), from respiratory diseases (in men), from diabetes, mental disorders, dementia and Parkinson's disease (in women). On the contrary, mortality is lower for all cancers, for diseases of the blood and haematopoietic organs and for the causes of the circulatory system. The follow-up analysis of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects residing in Rome shows that a share of deaths (about 20%) reports other causes of death such as cardiovascular diseases, malignant tumours, and diseases of the respiratory system on the certificate collected by the Italian National Statistics Institute. CONCLUSIONS: the 2020 mortality study highlighted excesses for acute and chronic pathologies, indicative of possible delays in the diagnosis or treatment of conditions indirectly caused by the pandemic, but also a share of misclassification of the cause of death that is recognized as COVID-19 death.

Influence of SARS-CoV-2 lockdown on the incidence of facial trauma in a tertiary care hospital in Rome, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Italy has been the first affected country in the western hemisphere by SARS-CoV-2 with over 200,000 cases during the first months of the pandemics. To control the spread of the virus, the whole country was placed under lockdown with limitations in the circulation of people and vehicles from March 2020 to the first half of the month of May. METHODS: We aimed to analyze the incidence and type of facial traumas referred to our tertiary care hospital during the months of Italy lockdown due to SARS-CoV-2 spread compared with those during the same months of 2019 to determine eventual variations in the incidence, type and causes of trauma. RESULTS: During the 2 months of COVID-19-related lockdown, a dramatic decrease in facial trauma patients was observed at our tertiary care hospital with a shift toward older age ranges. Regarding the causes of trauma, the largest percentage reduction was found in road, sports and work accidents; this percentage reduction was not found in aggressions. CONCLUSIONS: A small increase in the percentage was also found regarding surgical indications, likely because more severe cases were more prone to be referred to the hospital despite the fear of being infected.

Features of fragile people with SARS-CoV-2 infection in isolation in a COVID-19 hotel in Rome, Italy.

OBJECTIVE: Temporary COVID-19 hotels have been established in Italy to assist the homeless people that test positive for SARS-CoV-2 and require isolation. This observational study aimed to investigate the characteristics of the subjects who were isolated at the Casa tra Noi COVID-19 hotel in Rome between October 2020 and May 2021 and to estimate the duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity according to their main socio-demographic, behavioural and clinical features. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Socio-demographic data, clinical history, and anamnestic data of guests were collected by the clinicians reviewing the medical documentation and face-to-face interviewing. Nasopharyngeal swabs were performed every 7 days and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 was assessed by RT-PCR. Median duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity according to socio-demographic, behavioral factors and clinical condition was calculated. RESULTS: The 196 guests (161 males, 82.1%) had a median age of 41 years (IQR: 30-53), and were mostly African (87, 44.4%). Only asymptomatic/paucisymptomatic infections were observed. Almost half of the individuals (84, 42.9%) were affected by at least one co-morbidity, the frequency of which was higher among women (57.1% vs. 39.8%, p=0.06). The date of the negative SARS-CoV-2 molecular test was known for 144 guests (73.5%). Among these, the median duration of positivity was 21 days (IQR: 14-26) and did not significantly vary with age, country of origin, smoking status, alcohol or drug abuse. Among the co-morbidities, only infectious diseases significantly modified the duration of positivity, which increased from 21 to 34 days (p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Hotel guests were frequently affected by physical/mental co-morbidities. Duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity was significantly prolonged only in individuals affected by an infectious disease.

Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Nutritional Status and Lipid Profile of Employees in a Teaching Hospital in Rome: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: on the 9 March 2020, the Italian government declared a state of lockdown on the entire national territory aimed at reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2, causing strong repercussions for people's lifestyles. The aim of the study was to analyze the impact of the lockdown on the nutritional status and lipid profile of employees of an Italian teaching hospital. METHODS: an observational retrospective cohort study was carried out at the Department of Occupational Medicine of the Umberto I General Hospital of Rome, including all employees who underwent two consecutive occupational medical examinations before and after the first lockdown (9 March 2020-18 May 2020). Employee medical records were used as a data source. RESULTS: 1014 employees were involved in the study (50.6% nurses, 31% physicians, 14.8% technical staff, 3.6% administrative staff). Post lockdown BMI, total cholesterol and LDL values increased statistically significantly compared to pre lockdown ones. Nurses showed a significant association with increased BMI (p < 0.001), while workers with heart disease were inversely associated with total cholesterol (p < 0.001) and LDL (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: this study showed that lockdown had a significant impact on employees' lifestyles. Further studies are needed to understand changes in health-related behaviors, such as diet and physical activity, of specific categories of workers over time under lockdown conditions.

COVID-19 pandemic and days of absence from work in workers with flu-like symptoms in the City of Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 has dramatically affected working forces. We aim to report our occupational medicine service's experience in managing suspected COVID-19 cases during the pandemic through a retrospec-tive observational study. We compared the number of days employees were absent from work due to flu-like symptoms from March 2020 to February 2021 to the same period the previous year (2019-2020). Two hundred thirty-four patients (+47.2% compared to the previous year) who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 reported flu-like symp-toms; the number of days of absence from work was 2812 (+190.2% compared to the previous year). On average, employees with flu-like symptoms lost 12.07 working days compared to 6.12 in the previous year (p<0.0001). In conclusion, in our sample COVID-19 has increased the number of working day loss. However, our approach proved to be important, especially during the first months of the pandemic, to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread in workplaces.

Considerations on the sidelines of the second principle of the Rome Declaration: The challenge of the One Health concept on the health of the future.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic represented a global earthquake that made the review of health policies aimed at strengthening common governance necessary. OBJECTIVE: The paper analyses the reasons for which the One Health approach has become fundamental in the control of pandemic phenomena, by arguing the necessity to place it at the basis not only of health policies but also of intersectoral policies. METHODS: The documents of the world organizations published before and after the pandemic were analyzed and studied in order to unpack the close relationship between new lifestyles and the increase of health risks. RESULTS: It emerged that the One Health approach is a paradigm that has been advanced for more than 30 years, but due to the inadequacy of local and world health policies, this approach was never translated into concrete actions to protect health, feeding problems at the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Having ascertained that the adoption of a One Health approach can no longer be postponed, this must be insisted on several interconnected sectors that establish the new concept of healthcare which, in addition to being interdisciplinary, necessarily takes on a global perspective.

The 'digital transnational solidarity' and protection of health: Commentary to Principle no. 7 of the Rome Declaration.

BACKGROUND: Point 7 of the Rome Declaration is aimed at improving data sharing and technological and knowledge transfer as instruments to implement health policies. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the current paper is to understand if the legal framework (especially at a transnational level) may actually help to achieve the objectives laid down by Principle 7 or if some interpretative or legislative actions will be necessary. METHODS: The paper analyses the legal sources at international and EU levels. RESULTS: The applicable rules are based on the idea that the information and material are forms of 'property' of the individuals or of the states (i.e., the sovereign). According to the traditional idea of property, the owner has a sort of absolute power over the res and is entitled to exclude others from any rights over the thing. The 'property paradigm' may be useful to protect some relevant interests, but it can also affect collective interests, such as those concerning health during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: In order to build a global system for the exchange of data and materials as provided for by Principle 7 of the Rome Declaration, a new legal approach should be elaborated which takes into consideration the international corpus of fundamental rights, including research freedom, the right to health and the principle of transnational 'digital' solidarity.

Introduction to the Rome Declaration.

BACKGROUND: The Global Health Summit was held in Rome on 21 May 2021, co-hosted by the European Commission and Italy, as chair of the G20. Leaders, heads of regional and international organizations met to share lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and to define the path ahead. OBJECTIVE: The present paper analyses the Rome Declaration as the first global health programme shared among the G20 Member States and based on the One-Health approach. METHODS: Documents such as preparatory work, official documents and observations from international organizations were analysed in order to provide a comprehensive review of the Rome Declaration. RESULTS: Core principles of the Rome Declarations have emerged as well as the goal to improve cooperation among existing international organisations and national authorities. CONCLUSIONS: Governments' future decisions will be the key to determine the end of the pandemic. The interconnected impacts on health, the environment, and social and economic dimensions will be a central theme of the overall narrative aiming at bringing the G20 process towards achieving a more inclusive and sustainable society.

Changes in Eating Habits and Physical Activity after COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdowns in Italy.

The introduction of lockdowns and other containment measures during the COVID-19 pandemic substantially altered people's lifestyle and dietary behavior. Several studies evaluated the short-term effects of these measures; yet reports on long-term consequences are scarce. We sought to address this gap in the literature by analyzing dietary and lifestyle data collected at an obesity center in Rome, Italy. The Italian region of Lazio was hit hard by the pandemic. To evaluate the potential health impacts, we compared the pre- and post-lockdown data of 118 individuals. Contrary to the common belief that lockdown had adverse effects solely on people's dietary habits, we observed a significantly increased consumption of raw vegetables, whole grains, and water in our study sample. Favorable effects, however, were also accompanied by adverse trends, such as a higher prevalence of sleeping difficulties. Our data emphasize that the lockdowns associated with the pandemic also influenced participants' social behavior, with less individuals reporting eating out or in company. Our study highlights the substantial impact of lockdowns on many dimensions of life. As such, it is of utmost importance in the critical evaluation of such stringent containment measures.

Helicobacter pylori infection and positive Rome IV criteria for functional dyspepsia in Romanian medical students.

Recent data suggest that the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection in Romania has been declining in the last 30 years. However, there are no studies regarding HP prevalence among medical students. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of HP infection and assess the prevalence of dyspepsia in medical students and the relationship between dyspepsia and infection. We included 150 students from the Iuliu Hatieganu University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Cluj-Napoca, Romania (102 females and 48 males, mean age 21 years). Each student completed a lifestyle questionnaire, personal history, family history as well as the Rome IV questionnaire for functional dyspepsia. The status of HP infection was determined using the C13-urea respiratory test. The prevalence of HP infection was 25.33%, and 18% met the Rome IV criteria for functional dyspepsia. 37% of students with functional dyspepsia had a positive HP test. Of all students, 8% had a history of HP infection. Those with a history of HP infection had a 4.45% (95% CI 1.6 - 12.37) higher risk of having positive Rome IV criteria for functional dyspepsia than those with no previous history of infection (p=0.008). Thus, the present study adds to the body of evidence regarding HP prevalence among medical students, 25.33% being positive. We found no statistically significant correlation between HP infection and functional dyspepsia. Those with a history of HP infection had a higher risk of functional dyspepsia.

A machine-learning parsimonious multivariable predictive model of mortality risk in patients with Covid-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic is impressively challenging the healthcare system. Several prognostic models have been validated but few of them are implemented in daily practice. The objective of the study was to validate a machine-learning risk prediction model using easy-to-obtain parameters to help to identify patients with COVID-19 who are at higher risk of death. The training cohort included all patients admitted to Fondazione Policlinico Gemelli with COVID-19 from March 5, 2020, to November 5, 2020. Afterward, the model was tested on all patients admitted to the same hospital with COVID-19 from November 6, 2020, to February 5, 2021. The primary outcome was in-hospital case-fatality risk. The out-of-sample performance of the model was estimated from the training set in terms of Area under the Receiving Operator Curve (AUROC) and classification matrix statistics by averaging the results of fivefold cross validation repeated 3-times and comparing the results with those obtained on the test set. An explanation analysis of the model, based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), is also presented. To assess the subsequent time evolution, the change in paO2/FiO2 (P/F) at 48 h after the baseline measurement was plotted against its baseline value. Among the 921 patients included in the training cohort, 120 died (13%). Variables selected for the model were age, platelet count, SpO2, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, neutrophil count, and sodium. The results of the fivefold cross-validation repeated 3-times gave AUROC of 0.87, and statistics of the classification matrix to the Youden index as follows: sensitivity 0.840, specificity 0.774, negative predictive value 0.971. Then, the model was tested on a new population (n = 1463) in which the case-fatality rate was 22.6%. The test model showed AUROC 0.818, sensitivity 0.813, specificity 0.650, negative predictive value 0.922. Considering the first quartile of the predicted risk score (low-risk score group), the case-fatality rate was 1.6%, 17.8% in the second and third quartile (high-risk score group) and 53.5% in the fourth quartile (very high-risk score group). The three risk score groups showed good discrimination for the P/F value at admission, and a positive correlation was found for the low-risk class to P/F at 48 h after admission (adjusted R-squared = 0.48). We developed a predictive model of death for people with SARS-CoV-2 infection by including only easy-to-obtain variables (abnormal blood count, BUN, C-reactive protein, sodium and lower SpO2). It demonstrated good accuracy and high power of discrimination. The simplicity of the model makes the risk prediction applicable for patients in the Emergency Department, or during hospitalization. Although it is reasonable to assume that the model is also applicable in not-hospitalized persons, only appropriate studies can assess the accuracy of the model also for persons at home.

Transfer of chemicals to a secondary container, from the introduction of new labelling regulation to COVID-19 lockdown: A retrospective analysis of exposure calls to the Poison Control Centre of Rome, Italy, 2017-2020.

The transfer of a chemical product from its original container to an unlabelled secondary container by consumers is a potential health hazard that may result in unintentional exposures and intoxications. The aim of this study was to describe the pattern of prevalence of exposures to transferred products in Italy from year 2017, when the new European labelling regulation for chemicals became fully operative, to 2020, year of the coronavirus 19 disease first outbreak. Calls to the Poison Control Centre (PCC) of Policlinico Umberto I Hospital - Sapienza University of Rome were analysed retrospectively for characteristics, clinical presentation and circumstances related to the event. We registered 198 cases of interest. There was a reduction in cases from 2017 (4.9%) to 2019 (2.2%), followed by an increased prevalence in 2020 (4.2%) mainly due to the months "post-lockdown." The transferred product was very frequently diluted, and an empty drinking bottle was usually used as secondary container. Exposures were mostly of minor severity, and no deaths occurred. The study highlights the importance of PCCs data in the evaluation of the hazard communication to users through labels and advises for public campaigns to promote safe behaviours during future lockdowns to prevent exposures at a later period.